Friday, January 22, 2010

NFL Prediction: NFC Conference Final

The Saints host the Vikings on Sunday in a clear case of the best two teams in the regular season both making through the divisional finals. Both excelled in the first 2/3 of the regular season and were able to coast through the final 1/3. Homefield will be an advantage for the Saints, but it will not decide it.

The difference in this game will be the dedication the teams showed to their strengths.

After defeeating Seattle in Week 11, the Vikings had a record of 9-1, they were surely playoff bound and Favre was being lauded for his excellent play in a complementary role on a running team with 33 pass attempts per game. In the final six games that number ballooned to almost 40. Favre went from lauded stabalizing factor on a great team to MVP of a great team.

This is not intended to be a critisism of Favre, he can play that role, but his team cannot support that role. Tackles McKinnie and Loadholt are massive men that have no experience protecting MVP-type quarterbacks in the playoffs. They are not in the mold of Ryan Clady that excel in angular pass protection, they are bulls meant to gore linebackers. Furthermore, the Viking lack the receiving core for this type of offense. Harvin is a rookie that excels in a Reggie Bush-type role (early in the season he was gaining notoriety by making plays in the running game) and Sidney Rice had an excellent season by making big plays against defenses stacked up against the power rush. Rice also burned Dallas who are much more aggressive with their outside linebackers than New Orleans. Ware would blitz, the corners (who weren't great for Dallas) would be left on a island and Rice would kill them with spacing and enough balance to keep running after the catch. New Orleans will have more help and Rice's route-running will be exposed.

It's possible the Viking will revert to their power run game, but I think Favre wants to be "the guy" and I don't give Childress much credit as a tactician. Excellent organizational skills but he is not the cunning football mastermind that Sean Payton is.

The Saints do not have this problem of staying true to style. They are built to be a shape-shifter, like Patriots at the peak of their dynasty. Payton Brees and Bush are special trio that have the range of abilities to dominate in any style of offense - and add to that trio the non-glory trio of LT Brown and RG Evans and TE Shockey that all excel in any brand - and this team more than stacks up with any in the league.
The Saints are also willing to pinch your nose while they stomp your feet which is rare for a team with so many knockout punches.

Prediction:
Saints, KO round 3.

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