Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Vernon Wells Optimism

Surrounded by some of the most talented players in the league: Halladay, Burnett, Rios, and others being very technically sound; Halladay, Zaun, Rolen, Overbay - Wells' strengths weren't being accentuated by his team.
He would (I assume) take batting practice with Overbay and Rolen and those two would fight off pitcher's pitchers and hit to the gaps, and then he would take batting practice with Rios and Thomas and they would swing at anything, and Wells (like any other person) absorbed what made them great.

This year, playing with kids who will take pitcher's pitches and mash meatballs - Wells will trend toward that strategy and that will match his skill set much better. More Rene Bourque and less Daymond Langkow.

Even if it's not Wells doing it subconsciously, pitchers will do it for him.
Last year, opposing pitchers were willing to go deep into counts because the team lacked power (a 3-2 meatball is likely just a single) whereas this year an upgrade of power this year will require a pitcher to throw more early fastballs and less breaking balls. Of course there are scouting reports for everyone - but I do think most teams pitch with a general strategy.

I could see a borderline allstar season from the $25M man.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Kumaritashvili: Olympic Fatality

A luger died in a warm-up run at the Olympics in Vancouver.

I feel strongly about how readily the video is available and the risk this track puts athletes at - but I want to post about the Olympic mindset and the inevitability of this incident.

I have never been drawn to to the Olympic sports, and whether I am rationalizing personal taste or have been jolted into stark clarity, I now know why.

Olympic events are predicated on precision during the most arduous of tasks. The sport that best fits my definition is the sport that I consider the quintessential Olympic event: the biathalon. Physical exertion (cross country skiing) combined with delicate precision (rifle shooting) symbolic of a survival skill (hunting).

Sadly, Olympic events have lost the symbolism of every-man survivalism and increasingly has become highly specialized brinkmanship. Downhill racing, speed skating, luging and many other sports require their athletes to push themselves to the fastest speed on the fastest tracks - and these athletes work their entire lives for a single race and that emotional investment overshadows any reservations they have.

Two sports I enjoy, basketball and baseball, have a certain level of danger that is virtually unavoidable in most aspects of life. But the sports are predicated on deliberate and repeatable skill in a team atmosphere - and the rules are intended to downplay risks. Even hockey and football, far more dangerous sports, are also fraught with challenges based on strategy and skill and the dangers of the sport legislated within limits.

Olympians have no union, crowds have no limits, and the current host city (and perhaps country) has an inferiority complex that combines to make for the most dangerous Olympics in recent history.

I always used to refer to baseball as merciless - a slightly imperfectly hit ball often leads to an out and a bobble in the field costs a defense an out. But merciless just doesn't fit because the outcomes are innocuous. Olympic sports are merciless. The hue and cry from the Olympics is that driver error led to the crash - but what kind of sport is our country rallying around where error leads to death?
Worse yet, is that no one was shocked by this outcome. Some have claimed it "an unimaginable sequence of events" but that is ignorance unworthy of rebuttal.

We wanted the greatest and most dangerous Olympics in history with the most efficient equipment and most committed athletes (even desperate athletes with Canada's rallying cry) and Kumaritashvli's death is just collateral damage.

I do not wish to denigrate the participants of the Games. They have worked very hard and deserve international praise far moreso than the oversized and overpaid professional athletes that I follow. But let's be honest, the risks these athletes put themselves at approach the classification of bloodsport. This death was not an rare tragedy, it was inevitable.

Monday, February 8, 2010

NFL Super Bowl Review

Congrats to the Saints. They deserve full marks for the win as the better team. The bolder team.

The Colts? Timid.

The Colts looked timid all game. Didn't take shots down the field, didn't challenge or gamble with deep throws into coverage or unconventional playcalls. Even with the clock ticking down the final minutes in a two-touchdown game, Peyton Manning was taking quick check-downs and running dive plays.
Even at the end of he first half, where the Colts and Manning had gouged their opponents in earlier rounds, the Colts seemed satisfied with a dormant drive and limping to halftime - the Saints called timeouts to take the ball and momentum they would never surrender.
On defense, Freeney was a non-factor in the second half but the Colts seemed unwilling to break from their base defense that relies on him so heavily. Special teams were nothing special.

And this blogger is willing to point the finger at coach Jim Caldwell.

At 14-0 and with an undefeated season in the works, Caldwell pulled the plug on his own team by pulling his multi-million dollar offense off the field in the 3rd quarter of a close game at home. This timidness characterized the Colts for the remainder of the season - it may have been advantagous against a Jets team that the Colts outclassed in pure talent and did not need to take the game from - but the Saints exposed the Colt's reluctance on the biggest stage in the sport.

Commenter shout-out: Franks called out this cowardice long before this blog recognized it.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

NFL Super Bowl Preview


The most anticipated game in the NFL calender is upon us. A season of frustrating football with lousy teams and embarrassing performances has distilled the competition to two fine franchises and worthy opponents.

The Saints are chracterized by excellent versatility. A roster than can play any brand of football better than most teams play their best. However, the Saints do not have a single dominant area on offense and I suspect that will be their undoing against a Colts defense that is fast enough to chase Payton's gimmicks and doesn't need to close (and therefore open) holes with schemes.

The Jets exposed the Colts defense on a couple of occasions with big plays, but these plays were based on a power rushing offense that required the Colts to commit safeties. The Saints versatility does not lend itself to the same level of offensive progression and the Saints do not have the same prowess as a power running team as the Jets.

The Saints will produce, but will not be able to dominate the Colts on offense.

The Colts offense obviously revolves around Peyton Manning and the passing game. The Jets might have the best personelle in the league to match up with Peyton and they tried the strategy of blitzing Peyton heavily with a safety on top of Wayne...and they got roasted. The Saints are expected to try a similar strategy, but the only strategy that has a chance is a constantly changing scheme. The Colts offense is the ultimate pick-your-poison dilemma;
-Crash the edges pass-rushing? Their interior offensive line spreads the field too wide to contain the run, illustrated in the first scene of this clip.
-Balanced base defense? The Colts execute a sliding zone-blocking scheme with a partial bootleg that opens up a plethora of throwing lanes the defensive secondary can't handle.
(against the Jets, the Colt's first passing play was this sliding protection with a backside triple-move comeback route to Wayne for a first down)
-Overload blitz? Quick drops and precision route running will eat you up. The Jets tried to 'sit' on quick in routes and Peyton adjusted seamlessly, featuring an immature wheel route to Collie for crucial first down.
-Double-team the best and hottest receivers? Please.
-Prevent defense? This is what the Saints ran against the Vikings, relying on tackling and forcing fumbles. However, route running would make this strategic suicide - proven if you saw the Colts running after catches against the Jets.
-The Colts offensive line also heavily relies on cloud blocks against interior lineman (which is why you rarely see Peyton pressured from A-gaps against a 4-3). If the interior d-line widens their alignment to evade a double team from the center then the offensive tackle will engage the defensive tackle with the aid of the center while the guard pulls to engage the rush end - even in pass protection.


While lacking the pure talent and athleticism of the Saints, the Colts offensive line is superior working as a team to foil any schematic or athletic advantage their opponents have.

For that reason, the versatile Saints will require a combination of luck and emotion to contain Peyton Manning and the Colts in order to build a lead and force turnovers.

Prediction:
Though picking against the team of destiny and the best guard in the game is foolish, the Colts will leave no doubt.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Monday, February 1, 2010

Madness!

The second trade in as many days is now complete.

In a Flames trade that befuddles even Ranger fans, the long-sought prototypical center has been shipped off with a fan favourite for two wingers that chiefly add bad contracts to the team.

I'm still trying to digest the recent moves, this post will be a stream-of-consciousness point/counterpoint.
(Sutter refers only to GM Daryll for this post)


Point: Removing Jokinen from the team suggests Sutter wants players with a winning pedigree. FLA and PHX didn't win and Jokinen just didn't win enough.

Counter-point: Adding Higgins, Kotalik, and a merry band of Maple Leafs throws water on that.


Point: A huge influx of pure skill suggests Sutter wants to move away from grinding defensive system and toward a more open "firewagon" style of hockey.

Counter-point: Removing Cammy, Dion, and Keenan are incongruent with an offensive brand.


Point: This is parts 1 & 2 in a multi-stage roster shuffle.

Counter-point: It's difficult to accept that when, viewing the trades together, the three most valuable assets (Dion, Joker, Aulie) leave the team.
However, that is the straw I am currently clutching at.


Conclusion:
Trading Dion suggests only one conclusion. Sutter wants the cup this season and is working on adding a superstar forward.

How?
-Working backwards, Stajan could replace Lankow's role on the team,
-Higgins and Hagman fit on the wings and both are rumoured to have been coveted by Sutter. Dawes, Bourque, and Glencross have had their chance and have failed to fill the role as 2nd line contributors.
-Kotalik did not want to come to Calgary and (allegedly) needed convincing to waive a no-trade-clause negotiated solely to prevent a return to western Canada.
-Even with the Aulie move, there is a plethora of minor league defense. Negrin, Palin, Seabrook, even Erixon.
-Backlund's call-up looks like an audition.
-There has been a shuffling of minor league goalies. I don't claim to know the circumstances behind it, but Keetly/Iriving/Mcelhinney appear to be redundant and ripe for the picking.

Those appear to be the "chips" the Flames have to play poker with:
(asterisk denotes a 'must go' if my theory holds water)
C Langkow*, Backlund
W Glencross/Bourque, Kotalik*
D Pelech/AHL stable
G Irving/Keetly/Mac


That is not an insignificant package of assets. I expect (hope?) that Sutter completed a trade in principle before either of the trades of the last couple days (that included Kotalik, specifically or generally), and needed to move Dion to fill in the gaps created by this upcoming trade.



Role needed to be filled: #1 playmaking center.
Sutter will not leave this role unfilled, and evidently does not see Backlund filling it.

Who would?
Vincent Lecavalier seems to be the most logical.

Why Tampa?
Subtracting a center, but remaining a Stanley cup contender, Tampa would require a Langkow-type center.
Jokinen and his expiring contract have salary cap repercussions (the Lightning actually have to have cap space allocated for an expiring contract) or the Bolts simply don't like the Finn.
Kotalik and his combo of skill and howitzer shot may be coveted to pair with Stamkos.
Hedman, Ohlund, and Mezaros comprise a solid defensive core would limit Dion's value for TB.

These circumstances answer some puzzling questions, and combined with other assets from the Flames would comprise a very competitive package.

Dreaming?
Probably.

Madness?
Surely.

Flames shakup continues

Jokinen and Prust to Rangers for Higgins and Kotalik

There will be another post if-and-when this trade goes down, but my initial reaction is mostly confusion.

The Phaneuf trade screams that the Flames want to make a cup run this season, this trade suggests otherwise. Prust, a real heart and soul guy, can't feel welcome after being traded for a second time in two years.

Kotalik is awful, and a terrible contract. These (past and pending) trades are a indictment of Bourque and Glencross, wingers this blogger assumed would be $3M 2nd line wingers next year. If those roles are filled by Hagman and Kotalik then we're looking at these guys being first liners or off the roster.

I hope this move falls through or there is another move coming after this. This team isn't appreciably more talented in the short term, are smaller and less mean, and clearly the Flames are worse in the long term.

This post is all contingent on this trade going through, and it sounds like the phones are off until after tonight's game. Stay tuned....

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Dion Phaneuf: Flame No More

Calgary trades Phaneuf, Sjostrom and Aulie to Toronto for Hagman, Stajan, Mayers and White.

I am unimpressed.

Hagman and Stajan are 2nd line players added to a team comprised almost entirely of 2nd and 3rd line players. Mayers adds nothing to the team that they don't already have. White is an unknown commodity (to this blogger) but I find it difficult to believe he is an upgrade over Dion. And Toronto - the ultimate hype machine - hasn't built him up much.

Dion did not ask to be traded. He did not want out. He's crushed by this trade. Listening to his media scrum (and good on him for talking to the media) this is apparent.

The trade is a clear sign that Sutter had not anticipated adding Bouwmeester and he has filled the organizational role that Dion had. I do not believe this is a reactive "panic" trade, a terrible January does not alter the long term structure of an organization this stable. Still, my initial reaction is this is a lousy trade.

The Flames add no elite players. No draft picks. No prospects, in fact they trade away a very promising prospect in Aulie. The obvious weaknesses of the team - powerplay, playmaker for Iginla, restocking draft picks - are not addressed.

I like Hagman, but at $3M he is not a bargain and his value is not comparable to that of a 24 year old defenseman in the mold of Phaneuf. Stajan is a nice piece, but (yet another) borderline top 6 and a pending UFA - a "guy" that easily could have been acquired at the trade deadline for a much lesser asset.

Pronger, obviously a better player but on the other side of hill, was unloaded for Sbisa, Lupul, two 1st round picks, and then some.
Kessel was traded for two 1st round picks (likely including a top 3 this offseason) + a 2nd.
These were both moves made with desperation. Made in the offseason which removes the need to balance salary, but the returns are comically disparate.

Even if Dion needed to be traded (for one reason or another), Sutter made a bad trade from an asset management perspective. Was he really worried that this trade would fall through and he'd have to take a much lesser package at the deadline?

Another thing to consider, the Flames add four NHL plaayers and only subtract two. This necessitates waiving part of this already poor return or (more likely) it results in Lundmark and Backlund being sent back down; so the analysis of the talent being added to the forward ranks must include those players being removed from the team in the short term (and this return is all short-term).

Why Phaneuf? Looking at the Flames defensive core (before the move was made), it was young with a high ceiling and great athleticism. But not so young the team couldn't have spared a guy like Cory Sarich - who likely could have been moved for a pending UFA (especially if paired with an asset like Keith Aulie). Wouldn't that have accomplished the balancing of salary dispersion this trade seems to be about?

I hope that Dion pushed himself out of town with the rumoured conflicts between himself and team leaders, because if this is a trade made only to "rattle cages" and "shake things up" then I am not optimistic about this team or it's leadership.

As Commissioner, My First Act

NHL: Full Face Shields
Rule: Every player is required to wear a full face shield.

Improvement: The impact on player safety is obvious, and junior players have worn them for years.
Fighting would still be permitted after removing the shield.

Is the rule needed?: Players always have the option of wearing a shield, but without a league-wide mandate it is greatly disadvantageous for those who choose to.

Potential drawbacks: Players may become increasingly reckless with face shields, blocking shots or using the helmet as a weapon.

Also under consideration: Tightening "boarding" enforcement, suspensions for diving,


NBA: Timeouts
Rule: One timeout permitted per half

Improvement: The NBA game plods along, at best. Exciting fast breaks, defensive collapses, turnovers - all require immediate timeouts by coaches. This removes any semblance of momentum from the game.
Also, the commonality of timeouts enables coaches to draw up set plays whenever the situation calls for it. While not a negative in-and-of-itself, this has turned into a crutch for players. Instead of cunning resourcefulness, the league requires dutiful obedience and - when need be - the ability to make a terrible shot because the coach's play doesn't work as designed and over-coaching has stifled creativity.

Is the rule needed?: If you've ever watched the final minutes of a close NBA game then you know the answer.

Potential drawbacks: Less commercials (keep in mind I'm a commish here), restricted substituting

Also under consideration: Less personal fouls per game, loosen "blocking" foul calls, speeding up everything else (shorter shot-clock, free throw routines, etc...)


NFL: Overtime
Rule: First team to score 5 points in overtime wins.

Improvement: This would add a great deal of intrigue any game that went to overtime. Coaches would be faced with much more difficult decisions, and many teams would act differently in the same situation (playing to the respective strengths of the teams). Kicking may be magnified or eschewed.

Is the rule needed?: No, but fans are clamoring for the rule to be changed and a "coin filp-short drive-long field goal" ending to a Superbowl would be perceived as unfairly arbitrary.

Why 5 instead of 6?
It may lead to a situation where a team would concede a meaningless safety to gain field position.

Potential drawbacks: Superbowl finish may be too epic, having to listen to every broadcaster explain the rule for the next two years

Also under consideration: loosening "roughness" penalties, limiting front office and coaching signings until well after the Superbowl, re-establishing the CBA/salary cap, loosening "No Fun League" regulations, re-invent Pro Bowl, increase the difficulty of the PAT (point after touchdown)

Own the Podium, Surrender the Pride

Canadians aren't going to take it anymore. No gold on our home and native land?
Unacceptable.

Believe.
Own the podium.

Challenges and promises meant to stoke the sputtering flames of patriotism in Canada on the ultimate national stage. We are re-branding Canada as proud, and when need be, ruthless.

I am disappointed.



Canada has long been a harbinger of peace and tolerance. A role model of values that other nations could turn to as a moral and legal ideal. Though brave and heroic, our armed forces have not gained international repute on the same level that our peacekeepers have. Canadians are welcomed the world over, known for manners and civility. Canada has lead by example unencumbered by judgment. What greater international repute could a country hope for than that of 'citizenship most claimed by foreigners?' However, in recent years Canada has drifted away from this lofty international role.

Canada is no longer proud of their friendly and gracious characteristics. Years of punchlines about meekness, America's rapidly declining esteem, and the emergence of other countries as players on the international stage have exhausted Canada's patience with being the nice guy. Limit our economy by being ecological leaders? Fuck that shit.

But the nice guy is needed now more than ever. Decades of peace (in a historically relative sense) have bred selfishness and greed among the world's other leading nations. Canada has been able to keep those temptations at bay (as proven by conservative banking regulations that protected Joe Sixpack where America has extorted him). But after this admirable restraint, we are now actively campaigning for the opposite.



What are Canadians telling the rest of the world we believe in?

Woe be the Flames

The Calgary Flames are struggling.

After coming off a nine game losing streak in a pitiful January, Flames fans look to the remaining season with great trepidation. This blogger steadfastly believes the Flames are a wild-card for the Stanley Cup along with several other sub-elite teams, but clearly Flames fans are approaching a consensus that this team is underachieving.

As with everything else in our society, blame needs to be assigned. Sutter, Iginla, Phaneuf; all have taken their turns under the spotlight.

I blame our rivals.

Rival: Edmonton
In the late '80s the Flames were titans. In a seven season span the Flames earned two President trophies, two Stanley Cup appearances, and leaguewide respect. Fueling this organizational and individual passion was the dynasty to the north.

Today, the former dynasty is in tatters. The shortcomings of their roster are exceeded only by the absurdity of their contracts. The Oilers feature the league's least talented captain, worst $7M centreman, ugliest defensive core contracts, terrible durability, worst free agent decision (Khabby over Roloson) and obviously, worst management. This team is cover-your-eyes awful.


The ultimate symbolism of the current state of this rivalry was a fight between Flame captain Jarome Iginla and Shelden Souray.



A fight characterized by power and courage; the Red corner showing integrity following an inadvertent injuring of his opponent earlier in the season, the Blue corner remaining too fragile to even withstand the fight. (broken hand, out indefinably)

State of the Rival: Pitiful

The Flames swept the season the season series against the Oilers, the first team either team has accomplished this feat.



Rival: Vancouver

With the Vancouver Canucks as the only other Canadian competitor in the division, as well as the defending division champion, the Canucks are an obvious choice for a rival. With deft skill in the forward ranks, a foil for Iginla in the defensive core, and a game fighter - they seem tailor-made for their role as rival.

The problem?
Douchebaggery.

The franchise has built itself on shamelessness.

At the risk of derailing the post into Canuck bashing, I must admit the Flames are not saints either. Daryll Sutter's 2004 team included their own brand of villany, but that brand was goonery. Oliwa beating up an empty-net goal-scorer that danced too much for his liking, Nieminen running Osgood in the playoffs, McLennan taking an axe to Holmstrom, Regher taking face-offs, and more.
But at worst the Flames are bullies in an otherwise brutal league.

This same Flames team honoured Trevor Linden in his final game, as Iginla emptied the locker room to return to the ice and shake the hand of the soon-to-be-retired Canuck captain.

Sadly, it appears the team's class retired with their respected leader.


This "fight" featured more preening from Kessler than fighting, as after taking a punch he resorts to an MMA-style takedown and then calls his opponent a coward after game.



Burrows is currently embroiled in a dispute with NHL officials who are making a concerted effort to control the disgrace he brings to himself, the officials, and the game with his diving.


After losing a lead to Chicago in the playoffs last year, the fans littered the ice with debris and Vancouver announcer John Shorthouse acknowledged the franchise has developed a reputation of being poor sports.


A stadium and crowd that condone the use of high-powered lasers against opposing goalies. Lasers that are illegal to point at pilots flying planes.


Spike, a men's tv station, posted a list of the 10 worst fans bases in North America on their website. Checking in at #5....
It’s remarkable how arrogant the fan base of a team with zero Stanley Cups, no Hall of Fame players, and two homoerotic Swedish twins that seem physically afraid of the playoffs can act. It’s literally mind-boggling! These days, when they’re not too busy demanding trades on local radio shows or reminiscing about that year they almost signed Wayne Gretzky, you can usually find Canucks fans preaching about how hosting Jarome Iginla and the Canadian Olympic team will finally establish their city as a genuine hockey town (sort of like how marrying Lamar Odom made Khloe Kardashian a real celebrity – legitimacy by association).

Next time you see a suspected pyramid schemer in the corner of a trendy wine bar sporting a $200 hair cut, $900 suit, and emanating a distinct air of scumbag from his Drakkar Noir-soaked pores - go ahead and ask him about Kevin Bieksa, because odds are he’s a Vancouver Canucks fan and doesn't want to cry himself to sleep again before throwing out obscene predictions about the Norris Trophy.


State of the Rival: Embarrassing

The Canucks do a disservice to their name, which is already a pejorative bastardization of Canadian.

Rival: Montreal & Toronto

The two original six Canadian franchises steeped in mystique are rivals mostly due to their widespread fan bases. Unfortunately, due to the MLB-style unbalanced NHL schedule, the proliferation of television broadcasting, and the sorry state the two franchises are in - neither team has the same cache they once did.

State of the Rival: Irrelevant
Short of meeting the Habs in a Stanley Cup, these rivalries appear little more than bragging rights among fans.

Rival: San Jose & Chicago

If the Eastern conference rival has lost its lustre, we shall look west.
The 'Hawks and Sharks are the two preeminent franchises in the Western conference and the Flames have played both in the playoffs in recent years. Still, neither feel like rivals to this blogger. Neither team considers Calgary a threat in the standings, both lack propinquity (too far away), and individual players have not interchanged.

State of the Rival: Weak.

These teams just aren't rivals. Flames fans don't hate the teams, don't know any fans, and it will take more than just another playoff series to cultivate a true rivalry.


How much of an impact will the state of these rivalries have on the Flames success?
Not much. Rivalries carry teams and fans during the "dog days" of a season, which is January in the NHL. Once the playoffs roll around there will be plenty of incentive for every team to be at their best.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Long May He Run: Conan's Goodbye


Conan O'Brien finished his brief tenure as the Tonight Show host on Friday. It was a wonderful show and even if he never does another he will be one of my all-time favorite talk show hosts.

Caught up in all the gnashing of teeth and tabloid fodder is that Conan finished his show by thanking NBC for giving him a platform to dance on for 20 years, and dismissing the recent ugliness with a reminder that he is a comedian that had the best job in show business.
Nothing works out perfectly.

Long may you run CoCo.



Friday, January 22, 2010

NFL Prediction: AFC Conference Final

The Colts host the Jets this weekend which is a clear sign that the AFC is no longer deep, nor is it very good. The conference final game will reflect that.

The Jets limped through the season with a missing limb known as "skill offense." Excellent line play (featuring P.G.'s MVP) combined with an aggressive defense infused with several key free agent additions were enough to win a surprisingly weak division and two no-shows in the playoffs. This will not be the case against the Colts.

I can't tell you anything about the Colts you don't already know, years of playoff coverage have covered that. And it is those years of playoff experience that will be the difference. The Colts have refined counter-attacks against the best defenses for the past decade, the Jets are yet to against a refined offense in the playoffs; facing a Bengals team that stocked up on pure runners that RBs couldn't handle the blitz and a Chargers team that relies on big play athleticism.

The scapegoat for the Jets will be Revis. In a league that sets DBs at a huge disadvantage, a defense that blitzes too much, and against tight end that will occupy the safety Revis has to face the best route runner in the league under a national spotlight.

Prediction:
Wayne: 3 TDS, Revis: 0 INTs

One thing I can give you to watch for this game: the amount of ground the Colts offensive line concedes on their runs. Most team's run offense looks like a brick wall, the Colts' looks like the Flying V of Mighty Ducks fame. I don't see that strategy helping the run game much, I suspect it does help the pass protection (as the defense has no read). After watching the Jets pass rush so closely over the last two games, will this "soft" run blocking noticeably affect the pass blocking? I'll look for double moves off play-action.

NFL Prediction: NFC Conference Final

The Saints host the Vikings on Sunday in a clear case of the best two teams in the regular season both making through the divisional finals. Both excelled in the first 2/3 of the regular season and were able to coast through the final 1/3. Homefield will be an advantage for the Saints, but it will not decide it.

The difference in this game will be the dedication the teams showed to their strengths.

After defeeating Seattle in Week 11, the Vikings had a record of 9-1, they were surely playoff bound and Favre was being lauded for his excellent play in a complementary role on a running team with 33 pass attempts per game. In the final six games that number ballooned to almost 40. Favre went from lauded stabalizing factor on a great team to MVP of a great team.

This is not intended to be a critisism of Favre, he can play that role, but his team cannot support that role. Tackles McKinnie and Loadholt are massive men that have no experience protecting MVP-type quarterbacks in the playoffs. They are not in the mold of Ryan Clady that excel in angular pass protection, they are bulls meant to gore linebackers. Furthermore, the Viking lack the receiving core for this type of offense. Harvin is a rookie that excels in a Reggie Bush-type role (early in the season he was gaining notoriety by making plays in the running game) and Sidney Rice had an excellent season by making big plays against defenses stacked up against the power rush. Rice also burned Dallas who are much more aggressive with their outside linebackers than New Orleans. Ware would blitz, the corners (who weren't great for Dallas) would be left on a island and Rice would kill them with spacing and enough balance to keep running after the catch. New Orleans will have more help and Rice's route-running will be exposed.

It's possible the Viking will revert to their power run game, but I think Favre wants to be "the guy" and I don't give Childress much credit as a tactician. Excellent organizational skills but he is not the cunning football mastermind that Sean Payton is.

The Saints do not have this problem of staying true to style. They are built to be a shape-shifter, like Patriots at the peak of their dynasty. Payton Brees and Bush are special trio that have the range of abilities to dominate in any style of offense - and add to that trio the non-glory trio of LT Brown and RG Evans and TE Shockey that all excel in any brand - and this team more than stacks up with any in the league.
The Saints are also willing to pinch your nose while they stomp your feet which is rare for a team with so many knockout punches.

Prediction:
Saints, KO round 3.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Hate the Flames?

I hated the small centre / soft winger / oafish d-men composition that comprised this team for the last several season. This team is built to wreck you in a playoff series.

But part of the brand they've built is limited skill offense. January hockey is skill hockey, it's when Hueslius dominated, when Iggy heats up, when Bert dominated for a while last season - it's not conducive to cycling, hitting, or dump-and-chasing which is how the Flames are built. Games like Vancouver-Calgary from the other night don't happen much in January because it's completely untenable. It would just wear a team out. I don't care how much Bourque cares if he is gassed come playoff time or his body doesn't stand up to the pounding.

In January, when the Flames just finished a solid start to the season that had them competing for the division title and avoiding any significant injuries - it's possible they'd hit a "bump" - emotional, physical, or otherwise, where they had been struggling, got off to a bad start, bad penalty call and quick PP goal, and took a game off.

They just played 9 games with a combined 5 days of rest. They were exhausted, in California, got pushed off regular schedule (from the SJ airport rules) and...they took a game off. A road game. Dion gave up a goal because he came cross-ice for a huge hit - and missed badly. Going way too slow - Dion didn't "not care" into a bad play, he didn't have the legs to match his aggressiveness.

It's not that I'm ok with it, or that I wanted them to take a game off, it's simply reality. I saw the Oilers take 25 games off as MacTavish sobbed, I've seen teams take entire seasons off - let's not lose our shit because the Flames took one game off.

This team would probably benefit from a trade, Sutter should be looking. But not fire-selling.

This is the same team it was at the start of the season. Little has changed. As Flames fans, do not let yourselves get thrown under the bandwagon based on only the calender.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Search for an NFL team

Zach Thomas, Jason Taylor, Patrick Surtain, Jamie Nails - all pillars of my past favorite team. I hadn't always been a Miami Dolphin fan but I made a point to watch as many games from this incantation as possible because I was a huge fan of so many of their players. When Ricky was traded to the Phins I became an official fanatic.

Sidenote: My friend Alan P. told me that Ricky was traded to the Dolphins. I knew it was a joke, instantly. Like "some supermodel is at the door and asking for you, naked" skeptical. I didn't even check to see if it was true.

This team never made the playoffs during my short tenure as a fan (timeline: from when Ricky was traded to the team to when Thomas became a Cowboy) but I was very happy as a fan. I loved watching the team compete, I had scapegoats on the team I could blame shortcomings on, I had statistical support for my adoration (Ricky leading the league in rushing, Thomas leading the league in tackles, Taylor leading the league in sacks, Nails leading the league in being nails) - it was a happy time. I even busted out my OJ McDuffie jersey to write this piece (thank you obscure NFL players in Canadian discount bins). Also, though the Dolphins were a widely popular and successful franchise (mostly due to Dan Marino) their fans were not braying jackasses nor was the team media darlings.

The saga of Ricky will have to wait for another day, today I am trying to determine what team I can show devotion to for the forseeable future. NFL fan free-agency works for some folks, not I. I don't want to follow the best QBs and the brightest young stars in the league, I want to follow Jamie Nails.

to be continued...

Bad Shot Shooter

On the opposite end of my spectrum from the pulling guard is the Bad Shot Shooter.

The Bad Shot Shooter is most identifiable in the NBA. Late shot-clock situations, struggling offense, defefensive lineup - all can lead to a situation where a shot needs to be taken and the offense has no leverage.

The Bad Shot Shooter is important but can become toxic if he fails to remain within his role.

Mike James was always an excellent bad shot shooter, but James took so many bad shots that he became a great detriment to his team.

Kobe is so divisive because of his Bad Shot Shooting. Kobe can dominate games with bad shots (any player that has scored more than 80 points in a game can make bad shots) but he shoots so well that he can become toxic to his team by taking so many shot - and so many bad shots. The public vacillated wildly on Kobe for a few years (Shaq / post-Shaq pre-Pau / Pau) not because the public was fluctuating, but because Kobe was.

After Shaq Kobe was the best player in the league at taking bad shots. He'd make enough that he was still a star, but he take enough that his team's couldn't compete. Perhaps his teams weren't good enough to compete anyway, but Kobe was ensuring it. After the Lakers brought in some legitimate NBA talent (Gasol acquired in a deal that must have included rohypnol) Kobe stopped taking bad shots - but kept hitting bad shots - and led his team to a title.

NBA Championship Bad Shot Shooters include:
Chauncy Billups
Kobe Bryant
Micheal Jordan
...comment section, help me out here!

Notable exceptions:
Robert Horry

Horry was Big Shot Bob. Took game-deciding shots, not bad shots.
I'd like to get to a post on Horry but this isn't it. Horry was an excellent teammate, Bad Shot Shooters rarely are.

NFL MVP 2009

Congrats to Peyton Manning on his 4th MVP title. Apparently it was a landslide vote, presumably with all other votes also going to QBs or RBs. With a select few excellent corners in a league that is unbalanced favouring the passing game - in theory the MVP should go to a corner. Revis has been grabbing headlines and silencing any WR he encounters, and of the elite corners Revis has lasted longest in the playoffs (Woodson out, Asoumagha did not qualify for postseason) - and my pick for league MVP is a Jet. But it is not Revis.

The 2009 NFL MVP goes to - Alan Faneca.

Faneca left the Steelers, who don't believe in paying star players, for the Jets in the 2008 offseason. Plugging Faneca in between two young first rounders (D'Brick and Mangold - what terrific names!) made for a formidable offensive line that cleared the path for the best rushing offense in the league. Offset by a lousy rookie QB (sorry Sanchize) and a WR that tragically lost both hands to a crocodile - Faneca's impact is undeniable.




As a member of the Steelers he led an iconic offense built on the power-run game to a Superbowl and the Steelers floundered - at best - without him. In Faneca's final season as a Steeler they led the league in rushing with 135 yards per game.
The next season? 105, 21st.

Before arriving in New York the Jets were led by Chad Pennington and Thomas Jones and the Jets rushed for 1701 yards. Bypassing the Favre season, the 2009 Jets improved on their 2007 rushing totals by over a thousand yards; 2756.

Per game rushing totals for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009;
108.6, 106.3, 125.2, 172.2


I don't follow the Jets off the field, I don't listen to Jet interviews. I only watch football and observe statistics, both suggest Faneca had a huge impact on an otherwise unremarkable offense.

I haven't, and won't, address Faneca's calibre of on-field play. Not because it doesn't support my argument, but because it isn't relevant. MVP awards are attached to storylines, aggrandizing, and perception. Faneca fits a great story line (leader of the bully Steelers becomes leader of the bully Jets), and is one of very few interior lineman that fits perception (most casual fans know him from his Steeler's Superbowl). Peyton won, and was a deserving winner, but Peyton does not need any more aggrandizing - the only reason to be excited by this nomination is relative denigrating of Tom Brady.

Does Alan Faneca deserve aggrandizing?

Selecting an offensive lineman for league MVP has to be almost transcendent. It can't be about how great his footwork is, or from tallying pancake blocks. It's about acknowledging the effect of adding an impact player. Favre is an obvious 209 MVP candidate because it's commonly accepted that adding an elite QB can elevate an NFL team to elite status. But it's not commonly accepted that removing or adding an elite guard from an elite team has the same impact.
Let's address that by considering another impact guard that changed teams, Steve Hutchinson.

Shaun Alexander won an MVP trophy and broke a record for rushing touchdowns in 2005 - without breaking a tackle for the entire season! He glided behind Hutch, waiting until secondary angles were eliminated behind powerful drive blocks and devastating pull blocks. I'm no Shaun Alexander fan but this isn't about him. Hutch (with wingman Walter Jones at tackle) led the Seahawks to elite status and the team reached their zenith in 2005 with the best statistical rushing season to date. After 2005? Shaun got paid to the tune of $62M which left free agent Hutch out of the budget. Alexander was exposed for running like a 50 year old man and was out of the league shortly thereafter (in 2006 Shaun's rushing total was cut in half and he missed many snaps with a dubious foot injury).

As for Hutch - he would sign with the Vikings in a situation that led to a lot of bad blood between the two teams. The Viking had fired Tice as coach and lost the core of their offense - Moss (trade) Culpepper (injury) and Burleson (lost to Seattle in the feud over Hutch). The 1st round draft pick acquired for Moss added nothing to the team (Troy Williamson).

Seattle had lost an interior lineman but otherwise kept intact the best offense (including RB, QB, and LT) in the league - and went in the tank.
Minnesota had lost the devastating duo of Culpepper and Moss and added an interior lineman - and emerged as a powerhouse.

That doesn't sound like the script ESPN uses.

Obviously it is folly to view these events so simplistically, and further analysis would suggest alternate explanations that are far more palatable to common consensus. However, Hutchinson has been an integral cog in one of the best offenses in the league for most of his career.

The same can be said of Faneca. And it's about damn time they be recognized.


Wikipedia's list of career awards for Faneca:
This list now includes PullingGuard's 2009 NFL MVP.

What is this blog about?

I am an avid sports fan born and raised in Calgary. My "teams" are the Calgary Flames, Calgary Stampeders, Toronto Raptors, and Toronto Blue Jays. Most posts will be made in the perspective of a fan of these teams. Additionally I will espouse thoughts on the NFL, intending to focus on under- covered stories (should there ever be one).

My favorite blogs include Southpaw, KSK, and PFT - Florio still counts as a blog because I have been a member of PFT nation since it's inception.

Who is Jamie Nails?

Jamie Nails was an unheralded guard in the NFL, drafted by the Bills in the 4th round, that consistently led Ricky Williams through A-gaps or was the lead in a student-body sweep play. With Jay Fielder and Dave Wannstedt anchoring an otherwise terrific team, Jamie Nails led Ricky to the rushing title.

Welcome!